Latino support for Pres. Obama has dropped considerably in recent weeks, while support for presumptive nominee Mitt Romney has risen somewhat, according to a new poll conducted by Quinnipiac University.
The results showed Latino support for the president at 59 percent, nearly double that of Romney, at 30 percent.
Surprisingly, the new poll reveals that Pres. Obama’s support among Latinos is actually trending downward. A March poll by Fox News Latino found Latino support for Obama at 73 percent, while a USA Today/Gallup poll published in June showed two-thirds of the Latino population behind the president.
Coincidentally (or maybe not), pro-Obama super PAC Priorities USA Action and the Service Employees International Union (SEIU) will begin airing ads on Thursday in swing states Nevada, Colorado and Florida, attacking the former Massachusetts governor on gaffs he’s made and positions he’s taken.
The ads use harsh words for Willard and a possible presidency.
An elderly Latino man describes the moneyed nominee as “a person without feeling” who “doesn’t care about any Hispanic, Latino, or American who’s below him.”
“If Romney cuts Medicare,” the man continues, “I won’t be able to pay for it.”
The ad ends with a Latina telling the camera unequivocally that she will “definitely not” vote for Romney.
It’s important to note that while Obama’s support among Latinos dropped by 7 points since last month, Romney’s only climbed by 3 points, which means that Latinos are feeling disaffected more than anything else — but they’re still not feeling Romney. Should things stay as they are, many Latinos will choose to stay home on Election Day rather than vote for either candidate.
Also, how much can we trust the results of polling these days?
Not much, according to political scientist Sasha Issenberg. In an article published by Slate last month, she writes:
“In the United States … the polling industry faces a reckoning. Last month, the Pew Research Center, in what it called a report but was best read as a plaintive appeal for sympathy, declared, ‘It has become increasingly difficult to contact potential respondents and to persuade them to participate.’ In 1997, Pew reported, the telephone response rate to its polls (the share of outbound calls that yielded an interview) was 36 percent; by 2012, it had fallen to 9 percent. It was easy to attribute blame—the proliferation of mobile devices, caller ID, and the increasingly secondary nature of phone communication altogether.”
You can probably name one or two people in your life who still uses a land line or responds to phone numbers they’re unfamiliar with — and they’re probably over the age of 50. It’s a generational thing. 20-somethings hardly answer when their own friends and family members call, so their unlikely to answer an unknown number from a polling center.
And even if we can trust polls, 30 percent is a long way from the 40-percent Latino support Romney needs if he’s to have even a prayer of clinching the White House.
Plus, people tend to forget how much of a political genius the president is. If 2008 is indicative of anything, it’s that the Obama hounds have yet to bark.
Colorado TV ad: