by Juhem Navarro-Rivera
Incumbents are in trouble and may lose in 2012. This is what pundits are saying after recent surveys show that President Obama’s and, if you follow Puerto Rican politics, Governor Luis Fortuño’s approval ratings are lagging. In the case of Gov. Fortuño, his approval was measured in ‘letter-grades’ and he received mostly “D” or “F”. In the case of President Obama, his support among an important group in his winning coalition, Latinos, is fading.
People, we’re still 18 months away from the general elections in the U.S. and Puerto Rico. Chill! President Obama just announced his re-election bid and has no opponent (nor will have one until at least a year from now). Governor Fortuño’s road will be rockier but that doesn’t mean he’s unelectable (also, he has no official opponent). Remember than in a political system where only two parties have realistic chances of winning, even in bad times, an unpopular candidate can get elected. Let’s start with Obama.
The Republican field is wide open. It includes two non-serious candidates (Newt Gingrich, Donald Trump), two demagogues (Michele Bachmann, Sarah Palin), two 2008 leftovers/semi-frontrunners (Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney), a pair of recent or current governors (Haley Barbour, Tim Pawlenty) with conservative street cred, and the odd candidate with no name recognition (Herman Cain).
While the President’s recent approval ratings have been stable, there’s a noticeable decline among Latinos. In January, the LatinoDecisions/Impre-Media poll found 70% approval among Latinos but only 43% were certain of voting for Obama in 2012. The question is, in October 2012, will that 70% (54% as of 4/7) stay away from the polls, hold its collective nose and vote for Obama, or vote for whoever becomes the Republican nominee? I can’t predict the future, but if I were a betting man, my money would be on option #2 given that it will be hard to find anyone among the current GOP crop able to expand the current levels of Latino GOP support. Also, as incumbent, the President can do things (e.g., policy, executive orders, and speeches) that out-of-office opponents cannot do.
In the case of Governor Fortuño, he’s shown trailing by 22% (47-25) against
his [hypothetical] rival, Sen. Alejandro García Padilla. Only 50% of the governor’s NPP sympathizers claim they would vote for him. Yet, partisanship is strong in Puerto Rico. If the question were asked in November 2012, Fortuño’s support among his own will likely be much higher and his opponent’s overall support much lower because that’s what campaigns do: they put dents in a shiny armor.
Remember, while experts may be trying to predict the future and the current numbers don’t look good on paper, the games still have to be played. If Obama and Fortuño can deliver for their core constituents in the next 18 months, they have a significant shot of getting re-elected. As incumbents, they have the tools and they won’t be afraid of using them.
Do you already know who you are voting for in 2012?
To learn more about Juhem, visit The LatiNone.
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Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are solely those
of the author and should not be understood to be shared by Being Latino, Inc.
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Interesting perspective.
Nice post but I respectfully disagree when comparing Fortuño with Obama. Just check the current polls: Obama is not behind by 18 percentage points in any poll against any hypothetical candidate while Fortuño is. And García Padilla did announce his intent to run and to be a candidate in Feb. He isn’t the smartest bulb on the island, and the fact is that he is up so far so soon is amazing. 2012 in PR is an election against the arrogance of Fortuño. He is perhaps the first incumbent who doesn’t get it, although his recent budget and status remarks sounded more moderate.
Dunno Julio. I mean I could’ve titled it “never underestimate the power of the incumbency advantage” but it wasn’t apt for Being Latino. I’m not thinking about Fortuño or Obama, I’m thinking strength of their parties, ability to raise funds, and quality of possible opponents. And in those the PPD sucks. And it may be divided in 2012 if the MUS steals enough votes from them. It wouldn’t be the first time a split in a major party helps the other one win an election (see 1968; 1984). And my major point with surveys is that asking people to think “if” the election were today and having the election “really” today are two different things. Penepes may be mad at him but they aren’t gonna vote for a Popular. Maybe they stay at home and in a low turnout election then anything’s possible. Also, the poll was conducted with no campaigning going on, cuz there’s not an election yet. I personally think that 47% is Garcia Padilla’s ceiling so he has to hope that many Penepes stay at home, Populares don’t go to the MUS and turnout is low. That’s a lot to ask.